Mesothelioma patterns and projections in Ontario and Canada


Mesothelioma is a rare but highly fatal cancer that is strongly linked to asbestos exposure in the workplace. In Canada, despite the introduction of asbestos regulation in the 1980s, the annual incidence rate and number of new cases of mesothelioma have been increasing steadily over the past years, and is expected to peak sometime over the next two decades. Although many cases of mesothelioma are work related and therefore potentially eligible for compensation, currently less than 45% of all eligible cases are filing for compensation.


To predict:

  • the overall number of male mesothelioma cases in Canada and Ontario through to 2060
  • the year which will produce the highest number of cases (peak incidence year)


Statistical models will be created using data obtained from the Canadian and Ontario Cancer Registries, and Natural Resources Canada.


The results will assist compensation boards throughout Canada anticipate future filing rates and plan for programs to increase the rate of filing among those with workplace exposure. This work will also provide information that will help estimate the overall burden of asbestos-related disease (asbestos related lung cancer and asbestosis) in Ontario and Canada in the future.

Current status:

Data have been assembled and analyses begun. Results are expected later this year and will be reported as they become available.


Loraine Marrett (Occupational Cancer Research Centre and Cancer Care Ontario) (Co-PI)
Mark Clements (Australian National University) (Co-PI)
Paul Demers (Occupational Cancer Research Centre and Cancer Care Ontario)
Erin Pichora (Cancer Care Ontario)
Marina Stegne